Orgryte IS vs. Djurgardens IF - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

On Monday, 20 July 2026, Örgryte IS and Djurgårdens IF met in an Allsvenskan match at Gamla Ullevi, which concluded as a 0–0 draw. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market’s specific condition is met, while a NO share pays out if it is not; here, the crowd-implied probability of the condition occurring sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders believe it will not happen. This market covers “more markets” for that fixture, meaning it settles on outcomes beyond the final score, such as total goals, corners, or player stats, depending on the exact sub-condition defined.

Historically, Allsvenskan matches between these sides often feature tight defensive displays, with pre-match models assigning Djurgårdens IF a 58% win probability and a 29% chance of a draw, while Örgryte IS held only 13% [2]. A 0–0 result aligns with that cautious framing, and in similar low-scoring Allsvenskan games, “more markets” conditions tied to high goal counts or aggressive play have frequently failed to trigger, reinforcing why the YES probability remains at zero.

Traders should monitor official Allsvenskan post-match reports for any delayed stat corrections, as settlement depends on verified data from the league’s match officials rather than initial broadcast figures. While no new announcements have emerged since the 0–0 finish, any revision to corner counts, fouls, or shot metrics could shift outcomes for specific “more markets” conditions, though current records show no such changes [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.