Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Beşiktaş JK | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové | 0% |
| Draw | 0% |
Market context
FC Hradec Králové are playing Beşiktaş JK in a UEFA Europa League qualifier at Malsovická arena in Hradec Králové, with kick-off listed for 17:00 UTC. In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if the market’s stated event happens before the settlement window closes; a **NO** share pays if it does not, so the current 0% crowd-implied YES price signals that traders think the condition is effectively not happening or cannot be settled as true under the market rules.
The setup matters because this is a two-legged European tie, and the first leg is only one piece of the qualification picture. UEFA’s match listing, along with local reporting, places Hradec in a first-ever meeting with Beşiktaş, which makes past head-to-head form unavailable and shifts attention towards relative squad strength and the likely impact of home advantage in the opening game.[1][14] Comparable Europa League qualifying ties involving a larger club from a stronger league often attract short-priced favourites, but early-round away fixtures can be less straightforward than the headline names suggest, especially when the host is arriving from a successful earlier qualifying round.[16][7]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury news, and whether either side rotates ahead of the second leg in Istanbul. Sofascore’s match page shows the game at 17:00 UTC and notes Tomáš Petrášek as an unavailable player for Hradec, while Beşiktaş are listed without absentees in that feed.[2][15] The other key dependency is the wider Europa League schedule: the result here feeds directly into the next qualifying round, so pre-match team news, tactical selection and any UEFA confirmation of squad lists are likely to matter more than broad season-long reputations.[9][16]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $254K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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