FC St. Gallen vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

FC St. Gallen and Benfica are listed for a UEFA Europa League match, and this “More Markets” contract is asking whether additional related markets will be offered before the settlement window closes. In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if the event happens before expiry, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not, so a 0% crowd-implied price means traders currently assign almost no chance to extra markets appearing in time.

For context, pricing on “more markets” contracts often tracks whether the underlying fixture is still fluid enough for the exchange or platform to add derivative questions such as scorers, cards, or exact-score outcomes. Head-to-head listings for this tie exist, but the available public pages do not show a queue of additional derivatives, which is consistent with the market’s zero-cent expectation rather than evidence that nothing else could be added.[1][2] In football prediction markets, a flat price usually reflects the absence of an announced expansion rather than a view on the match result itself.[2]

The main catalysts are operational rather than sporting: a late change to the fixture listing, a platform decision to publish extra sub-markets, or a schedule update if the match data feed is amended before the settlement deadline. One Sky Sports fixture page still lists Benfica v St Gallen with a later kick-off time than the market description, which is the sort of discrepancy traders watch closely because market definitions depend on the organiser’s official match listing.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.