Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: KRÜ (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-2.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-4.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-3.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 75% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-3.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-2.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 49% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-4.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-5.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-6.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-2.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-3.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Fluxo W7M (-4.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-3.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-2.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-5.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-6.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-7.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-8.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: KRÜ Esports (-9.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: krü esports vs fluxo w7m (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 play-in stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket round 1 match between KRÜ Esports and Fluxo W7M in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 8:0…
Methodology
We track Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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