Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Team Envy (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Team Envy (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Team Envy (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Team Envy (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Team Envy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Team Envy (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Team Envy (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Team Envy (+5.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Team Envy (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Team Envy (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map Handicap: NV (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Team Envy (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Team Envy (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-7.5) vs Team Envy (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-8.5) vs Team Envy (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Envy (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Valorant: Team Envy vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha. This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Envy and NRG in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for August 6 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Envy" if T…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Valorant: Team Envy vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stag… on Prediction Market UK
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