Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins are due to play in an MLB game, and this market settles on whichever side wins outright. A Yes share pays out if the named team wins; a No share pays out if it does not. With crowd-implied probability at 100% Yes, the market is effectively pricing the Braves as a certainty, which is unusual for a single baseball game because even strong favourites can lose on one bad inning, bullpen slip, or defensive error.

Recent comparable pricing around this fixture has leaned towards Atlanta, but not at this extreme. OddsIndex’s preview for a Braves–Marlins meeting projected Atlanta as a modest favourite and had a total of 8.5 runs, while another preview for a later game also sided with Atlanta rather than treating the result as assured. That is the key reference point for new readers: prediction markets are not asking who should win in the abstract, but what the final official result is likely to be, given line-up strength, pitching, venue and late team news.

The main catalysts to watch are the announced starting pitchers, any rest day for core bats, and whether the game is completed as scheduled, since postponement keeps the market open until it is played. Bullpen availability matters as well, especially if either club has used multiple relievers heavily the night before. If there is a last-minute lineup change or weather risk in Atlanta, that can shift the expected win probability more than a generic head-to-head record.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.