Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals | Prediction Market [80% Yes]

Name: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Start: 2026-07-22T13:00:46.000Z
End: 2026-08-04T23:45:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	80%	20%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	See live odds →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	80%	20%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	See live odds →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	See live odds →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	See live odds →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5	80%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5	67%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5	55%
O/U 8.5	53%
NRFI	51%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals	50%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5	43%
O/U 9.5	42%
Spread -1.5	39%
O/U 10.5	36%
Spread -1.5	33%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	32%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5	32%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5	30%
Spread -2.5	30%
Spread -2.5	23%
Extra Innings	9%

Market context

The Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals prediction market currently prices this outcome at 80% YES. In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for July 28 at 7:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This marke…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 80% for "Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 80% Other 20%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $148K.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?: Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?: Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?: Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?: Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporterand

Emma RobertsFinancial Journalist

Trade Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals on Prediction Market UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals on Prediction Market UK

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