Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles are due to meet in a regular-season MLB game, and the market will settle on the official winner once the game is final. In prediction-market terms, a YES share pays out if Detroit wins; a NO share pays out if Baltimore wins. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until the make-up is played. If there is no make-up, or the game ends in a tie, it resolves 50-50 under the rules provided.

A 45% YES price implies the market sees Detroit as a slight underdog, with Baltimore given the edge. That is consistent with the wider season numbers shown by ESPN: Baltimore has scored more runs, hit more home runs, and carries a slightly better slugging figure, while Detroit’s away record has been poor. Recent head-to-head results also lean Detroit’s way in the short term, with the Tigers sweeping Baltimore in a doubleheader in April 2025 and again shutting them out to complete a series sweep, so the market is balancing current season form against past matchup results.

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, the starting pitchers, and any late injury or rest news before first pitch. ESPN’s live game page already lists Baltimore as the favourite in the moneyline market, which suggests the pre-match price is being driven by home-field and overall team form rather than the recent head-to-head run. Any change to the scheduled 7:15 pm ET start, a pitcher swap, or a weather delay could matter because this market remains open until a completed game is officially recorded.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.