Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs are scheduled to play on 22 May, and this market pays out on which club wins that game. In prediction markets, a YES share means the named outcome happens and a NO share means it does not; here, a YES on Houston settles if the Astros win, while a YES on Chicago settles if the Cubs win. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until it is completed; if it is cancelled with no make-up, or ends tied, it resolves 50-50.

A 94% crowd-implied probability for one side suggests traders think the result is close to settled, but baseball games remain volatile because a single starting pitcher, bullpen usage, or late scratch can swing the outcome. Recent form and head-to-head results also matter: Chicago has just come off a 2-0 shutout loss to Houston in the series finale reported by Marquee Sports Network, while earlier coverage of the same matchup also showed the Cubs producing a 12-3 win, a reminder that these teams can alternate between low-scoring and high-scoring scripts. That is why a very high implied probability should be read as a market view, not a certainty.

For this game, the main catalysts are the confirmed starting pitchers, any line-up changes, and whether weather at Wrigley affects run-scoring or delays first pitch. Pre-game injury news, rest days for key hitters, and late bullpen availability can all matter because the market resolves only on the final official result. If the game is completed on 22 May, the winner is straightforward; if it is moved, the settlement depends on the eventual make-up fixture rather than the original date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.