Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June at 6:40 PM ET, the Los Angeles Dodgers will face the Pittsburgh Pirates in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet on the Dodgers winning; a NO share bets on a Pirates victory. The current crowd-implied probability of 17% for a Dodgers win reflects substantial confidence in Pittsburgh, though this sits well below the Dodgers' historical win rate. The market remains open until 16 June, allowing traders to adjust positions as game day approaches and new information emerges.

The Dodgers have won approximately 55% of their games over the past five seasons, whilst the Pirates have averaged closer to 43% across the same period. This historical disparity suggests the 17% probability may undervalue Los Angeles's baseline strength, though single-game outcomes depend heavily on pitching matchups, injury status, and recent form. The Pirates have occasionally produced upset victories against stronger opponents, particularly at home, but such results remain statistically uncommon.

Traders should monitor roster announcements, particularly regarding starting pitchers and any late-notice injuries, which typically emerge in the 24 to 48 hours before first pitch. Weather conditions at PNC Park in Pittsburgh can also influence game dynamics. The settlement window closes shortly after the scheduled end time, meaning any postponement would extend the market's duration until completion, whilst cancellation without a rescheduled make-up game would trigger a 50-50 resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.