Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 95% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 93% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 93% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 92% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 92% |
| O/U 34.5 | 91% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 90% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 88% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 88% |
| O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 87% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 86% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 85% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 85% |
| O/U 38.5 | 82% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 76% |
| O/U 42.5 | 74% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| O/U 44.5 | 68% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 66% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 64% |
| O/U 46.5 | 63% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 58% |
| Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| O/U 48.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 54% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| O/U 50.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 52% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Bears: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Safety? | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| O/U 52.5 | 45% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 42% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Patriots vs. Bears | 40% |
| Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| O/U 56.5 | 35% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Moneyline | 31% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| O/U 58.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 29% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 29% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 60.5 | 24% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 24% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| O/U 62.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| O/U 64.5 | 18% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-13 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 14-20 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 21+ | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, patriots vs. bears stands at 95% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NFL football game between Patriots and Bears, scheduled for October 22 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Patriots" if Patriots win the game. This market wi…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $128K.
Methodology
This page reviews Patriots vs. Bears across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Patriots vs. Bears on Prediction Market UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →