Celtic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Scottish Cup football matches between top-tier and lower-tier clubs typically settle as YES outcomes, meaning the higher-ranked side advances. In this market, a YES share represents a bet that Celtic FC will progress from their Scottish Cup fixture against Dunfermline Athletic FC on 23 May 2026. A NO share bets the opposite—that Dunfermline will either win outright or force a replay that extends beyond the settlement window. The 100% implied probability reflects Celtic's substantial competitive advantage: they compete in the Scottish Premiership whilst Dunfermline play in the Championship, two divisions below.

Historical precedent supports this pricing. Celtic have won the Scottish Cup 41 times and finished as runners-up on 16 occasions; Dunfermline's last cup win came in 1968. In recent seasons, Celtic have advanced from every Scottish Cup tie against lower-league opponents, typically by comfortable margins. The fixture structure—a single-leg knockout in May—eliminates the possibility of a replay extending past the settlement deadline, meaning the result will be determined on the day.

Key dependencies centre on team availability and fixture congestion. Celtic's involvement in European competitions through spring 2026 could affect squad rotation, though such considerations rarely alter outcomes against Championship opposition. Dunfermline's form in the months preceding May will influence their competitive readiness, but historical data shows Championship sides rarely overcome Premiership clubs in knockout football. Injury announcements for Celtic's key players in the weeks before 23 May warrant monitoring, though even depleted squads have historically managed such fixtures.

Methodology

We track Celtic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.