Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano

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Market context

On 24 May 2026, Bologna FC 1909 will host FC Internazionale Milano in a Serie A fixture. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that a specific outcome occurs; a NO share bets against it. This market settles YES if a particular result materialises by the settlement deadline at 13:00 UTC on match day, and NO otherwise. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are assigning negligible likelihood to the event in question—though the specific outcome being priced remains to be clarified by the market operator.

Historically, Inter Milan have dominated recent Serie A seasons, finishing consistently in the top two and winning the Scudetto in 2021 and 2024. Bologna, by contrast, have been mid-table regulars, though they qualified for European competition in 2024–25 after a strong campaign. Head-to-head records show Inter with a substantial advantage: in their last five league meetings, Inter won four and drew one. Such asymmetries in team strength typically anchor probability estimates, making outcomes heavily favourable to the stronger side.

Traders monitoring this fixture should track injury reports and squad rotation decisions in the weeks before 24 May, particularly for Inter's key players. Late-season form and league position at that point will matter—if either club is fighting for European qualification or avoiding relegation, tactical approaches may shift. Weather conditions and pitch state at Bologna's Stadio Renato Dall'Ara could also influence play, though such variables are harder to predict months in advance.

Methodology

We track Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.