Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| Como 1907 O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| O/U 1.5 | 87% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 86% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| Como 1907 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| Como 1907 O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| O/U 2.5 | 69% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| Como 1907 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score | 63% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| Como 1907 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio 1st Half (-2.5) | 50% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio 2nd Half (-2.5) | 50% |
| Como 1907 2nd Half (-2.5) | 50% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Como 1907 (-1.5) | 43% |
| Como 1907 O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Como 1907 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Como 1907 2nd Half (-1.5) | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 35% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Como 1907 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Como 1907 1st Half (-2.5) | 27% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio 2nd Half (-1.5) | 26% |
| Como 1907 (-2.5) | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 24% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Como 1907 O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Como 1907 1st Half (-1.5) | 21% |
| Como 1907 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| 1st Half O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| 2nd Half O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Como 1907 (-3.5) | 11% |
| Como 1907 O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Como 1907 (-4.5) | 8% |
| Como 1907 (-5.5) | 8% |
| Como 1907 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Como 1907 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| O/U 6.5 | 6% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio (-1.5) | 5% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio 1st Half (-1.5) | 4% |
| O/U 7.5 | 3% |
| Como 1907 O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio O/U 3.5 | 3% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio (-2.5) | 2% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio (-3.5) | 1% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio (-4.5) | 1% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio (-5.5) | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 97% YES probability for Como 1907 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio - More Markets. More markets for the Serie A game, scheduled for October 24 at 9:00 AM ET.
Methodology
We track Como 1907 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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