Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: EG (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-5.5) vs FURIA Esports (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-6.5) vs FURIA Esports (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-7.5) vs FURIA Esports (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-8.5) vs FURIA Esports (+8.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-9.5) vs FURIA Esports (+9.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-10.5) vs FURIA Esports (+10.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-5.5) vs FURIA Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-6.5) vs FURIA Esports (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-3.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: evil geniuses vs furia esports (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 group alpha stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Evil Geniuses and FURIA Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for August 6 at 5:00PM ET. This marke…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT… on Prediction Market UK
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