Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 98% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 72% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 56% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 45% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 27% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-5.5) vs Eternal Fire (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-4.5) vs Eternal Fire (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-4.5) vs Eternal Fire (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-5.5) vs Eternal Fire (+5.5) | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
The Valorant: FUT Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between FUT Esports and Eternal Fire in the VCT EMEA Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 15 at 11:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
We track Valorant: FUT Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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