Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics | 68% |
| Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 54% |
| O/U 169.5 | 53% |
| O/U 170.5 | 52% |
| O/U 171.5 | 48% |
| Sonia Citron: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Assists O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 31% |
| Rhyne Howard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Shakira Austin: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Rhyne Howard: Points O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 17.5 | 30% |
| Shakira Austin: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Allisha Gray: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Sonia Citron: Points O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Points O/U 15.5 | 27% |
| Rhyne Howard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Rhyne Howard: Points O/U 17.5 | 26% |
| Sonia Citron: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 18.5 | 25% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 15.5 | 25% |
| Shakira Austin: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 23% |
| Angel Reese: Assists O/U 2.5 | 23% |
Market context
Market consensus: 68% chance of atlanta dream vs. washington mystics. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 7 at 7:30PM ET: If the Atlanta Dream win, the market will resolve to "Atlanta Dream". If the Washington Mystics win, the market will…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $75K.
Methodology
This page reviews Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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