Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 57% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Set 2 Winner | 57% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 47% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch | 32% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, hamburg european open: anna bondar vs tamara korpatsch stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Anna Bondar and Tamara Korpatsch in the Hamburg European Open, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
We track Hamburg European Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Korpatsch across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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