Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado. This market refers to the tennis match between Facundo Acosta and Juan Carlos Prado in the San Marino, originally scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Facundo Acost…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade San Marino: Facundo Acosta vs Juan Carlos Prado on Prediction Market UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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