National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik

Platform comparison

Market context

The match between Terence Atmane and Jakub Mensik is the event behind this market, and a **YES** share pays out if Atmane advances, while a **NO** share pays out if Mensik advances. If the match is not completed in time for the market rules, or is cancelled, the outcome can fall back to a 50-50 settlement rather than a simple winner-loser result.

The 18% crowd-implied probability suggests the market has Atmane as a clear underdog. That fits the public numbers: Mensik is the higher-ranked player, listed around ATP No. 17 in match coverage, while Atmane is around No. 46.[3][8] The pair have no prior head-to-head record, so traders have to lean more heavily on broader form and surface results than on direct match history.[2][6] Mensik’s recent record is stronger across the past 12 months and on hard courts, which is the relevant surface in Montreal, while Atmane’s numbers are more modest by comparison.[4][6]

For traders, the main catalysts are simple: whether the match stays on the schedule, whether it is completed, and whether any late withdrawal, retirement or weather-related delay changes how the market resolves. Live match pages already show the contest listed in Montreal, which means monitoring official draw and score updates matters more than long-range speculation.[1][3][7] In prediction markets, the practical distinction is between a player *advancing* and a match merely *starting*; if play is interrupted without a winner, the settlement rules here can still override the on-court scoreline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.