National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Platform comparison

Market context

Duncan Chan and Thiago Agustín Tirante are due to meet in the National Bank Open, with the market paying out on the player who actually advances from the match. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share resolves to Duncan Chan winning, while a **NO** share resolves to Thiago Agustín Tirante winning; if the match is cancelled, tied, or left undecided beyond the market’s delay rule, it settles 50-50. The crowd-implied 0% YES price indicates the market is treating a Chan win as extremely unlikely, which is consistent with Tirante being the established ATP-level player and Chan entering as the much lower-ranked qualifier.[2][7][13]

That reading also fits the broader form data. Tennis.com lists Tirante at ATP No. 64, while Chan is unranked in singles on that match page and is described elsewhere as around ATP No. 601, with Chan having only 14 matches in 2026 and eight wins.[2][7] The pair have no prior head-to-head record, so traders are not dealing with any direct matchup history; instead, they are weighing a large ranking gap against the uncertainty that comes with a first meeting and Chan’s recent qualifying run.[1][6][9] Comparable pre-match models also tilt sharply towards Tirante, with one event page projecting him as the winner at 73% and another modelling him as an even stronger favourite.[2][9]

The main catalysts are straightforward: official tournament scheduling, whether the match starts as planned, and whether it finishes with a winner before the settlement window closes. Flashscore and Tennis.com both had the match listed for 3 August in Montreal, but markets like this can move only if the on-court status changes or if the event is delayed, suspended, or abandoned.[2][7][8] For new readers, the key point is that prediction-market prices reflect *probability*, not certainty; a very low YES price can still resolve to YES if Chan wins, but operational issues can force the fallback 50-50 outcome under the contract rules.[15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.