Bloomfield Hills: Jacob Fearnley vs Tristan Boyer

Platform comparison

Market context

Jacob Fearnley’s match with Tristan Boyer in Bloomfield Hills is the real-world event behind this market, and the key point for newcomers is that a **YES** share pays out if Fearnley advances, while a **NO** share pays out if Boyer advances. The current crowd price implying **100% YES** means the market is treating a Fearnley advance as effectively certain, which is consistent with the publicly available live match listings showing Fearnley ahead in the result. [1][2]

For prediction markets, very high probabilities usually reflect either a result already in progress, a near-final score, or strong consensus that the outcome is decided. Here, comparable live market and scores pages show the same pairing tracked as an active match on 23 July 2026, with one source already recording it as finished 1-0 to Fearnley and another listing it live, which helps explain why the market has been priced at the extreme end. [1][2][3]

The main catalysts to watch are straightforward: official score updates, whether the match is completed, and any tournament scheduling changes that could trigger the market’s settlement rules. If the result is later overturned, abandoned, or delayed beyond the specified window without a winner, the market description says it can resolve to 50-50, so traders focus on whether the win is formally recorded rather than on live momentum alone. [1][3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Bloomfield Hills: Jacob Fearnley vs Tristan Boyer across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.