Hagen: Max Houkes vs Vilius Gaubas

Platform comparison

Market context

Max Houkes vs Vilius Gaubas is a straight tennis tie: in a prediction market, a **YES** share pays out if the named outcome happens, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not. Here, the market resolves to Houkes if he advances against Gaubas, to Gaubas if he advances instead, and to 50-50 only if the match is not completed in time or is otherwise void under the rules.

The current **100% YES** price says traders are treating the Houkes outcome as a near-certainty, but that reading should be checked against the actual match status and any tournament updates. The two players have met before, with Houkes leading the head-to-head 2-0 in the available records, and both of those meetings came on clay, including a three-set win for Houkes in March 2026.[5][6] Ranking data also points to Gaubas as the higher-ranked player, with Gaubas around ATP 105/120 in the live listings and Houkes around ATP 241/242, so the market is not simply pricing the better-ranked player.[1][6][12]

For traders, the main catalysts are mundane but decisive: whether the scheduled Hagen match is actually played, whether either player withdraws, and whether the result is completed before the 7-day cutoff in the settlement rules. Live scoreboards and tournament schedules are the key checks, because a retirement after the match starts still produces a winner, whereas a cancellation or excessive delay can push the market to 50-50 instead. As of the latest available listings, the match is shown in live/fixture feeds, which implies the decisive information is the official scoreline rather than pre-match form alone.[1][11][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Hagen: Max Houkes vs Vilius Gaubas across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.