Zug: Harold Mayot vs Mika Brunold

Platform comparison

Market context

The scheduled event is a Challenger-level match in Zug between **Harold Mayot and Mika Brunold**, and a prediction-market share here is a simple yes/no contract on whether one named outcome happens: a **YES** share pays if the market’s specified outcome occurs, while a **NO** share pays if it does not. In this case, the contract resolves to Harold Mayot if he advances against Brunold, or to Mika Brunold if Brunold advances against Mayot; if the match is cancelled, ends level, or is delayed beyond the stated window without a winner, the market settles 50-50 by the rules in the description.

The current crowd-implied probability of **100% YES** means the market is pricing the named outcome as fully expected, but traders usually read that as a view on completion and advancement rather than certainty about the scoreline. The limited published head-to-head record also points in Mayot’s direction: available match databases show Mayot beating Brunold in their prior Zug meeting, while a separate odds model puts Mayot around **52.12%** to win, which is far less decisive than the current market price.[2][3]

The main catalysts to watch are the official draw and order of play, any last-minute withdrawal or walkover, and whether the match actually starts before the settlement deadline. If the contest is postponed past the market’s seven-day tolerance or never played, the contract does not resolve to either player and instead goes to the tie outcome specified in the rules. The most useful live signals are tournament scheduling updates and match-status feeds, since those determine whether a result is recorded cleanly or whether retirement, cancellation, or delay provisions take over.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Zug: Harold Mayot vs Mika Brunold across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.