National Bank Open: Nicolas Mejia vs Martin Landaluce

Platform comparison

Market context

The match is a straight win-or-lose proposition for **Nicolas Mejia** against **Martin Landaluce**: if Mejia advances, the market resolves to YES for Mejia; if Landaluce advances, it resolves to YES for Landaluce. In prediction-market terms, a YES share pays out if the named outcome happens, while a NO share pays out if it does not. With the crowd-implied probability at **100% YES**, traders are effectively pricing this as a near-certain Landaluce advance.

That reading fits the broader form picture. Landaluce is the higher-ranked player in the available listings, around **ATP 63-64**, while Mejia is shown around **ATP 129-131**.[1][3][11] Market data also points Landaluce as a clear favourite, with one tennis pricing model giving him about **74%** projected win probability and another market snapshot showing roughly **69%**.[7][13] Head-to-head is **0-0**, so there is no prior match-up record to lean on, but Mejia’s first-ever Masters main-draw appearance and 0-3 tour-level hard-court main-draw record are notable context for a hard-court event like Montreal.[1]

The main catalysts are straightforward: whether the match is actually played, whether the draw stays intact, and whether either player withdraws or the schedule shifts. The settlement rules matter because an unplayed match, a tie, or a delay beyond seven days would push the market to **50-50**, not a winner-take-all result. Recent live listings indicate the fixture was on court or imminently scheduled around 2 August 2026, so traders should watch official order-of-play updates and any retirement or postponement notices closely.[1][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.