Estoril Open: Henrique Rocha vs Pedro Martinez

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the ATP Estoril Open match where Portuguese player Henrique Rocha faced Spanish opponent Pedro Martinez on clay, originally scheduled for 20 July 2026. Pedro Martinez won the contest decisively, advancing to the next round with a 7–5, 7–5 victory after two hours and ten minutes of play [1]. Because the match has already concluded with a confirmed winner, the prediction market for Rocha advancing now carries a 0% implied probability of a YES outcome, reflecting the settled real-world result.

In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the specified event occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the event “Henrique Rocha advances” has definitively not happened. Historical cases show that once a match result is official, markets with 0% probability rarely fluctuate unless settlement rules are misapplied or new evidence emerges, which is not the case here [2]. The current pricing aligns with the factual outcome, meaning NO shares are effectively certain to resolve successfully under the market’s terms.

Traders should monitor the official settlement confirmation from the platform, as the market resolves to “Pedro Martinez” given his advancement. No further catalysts such as schedule changes or cancellations apply, since the match was completed within the standard window [1]. With over $647,000 in trading volume already recorded on comparable platforms, liquidity is sufficient for exit, but no new information is expected to alter the outcome [2]. The settlement window ending in July 2026 is administrative; the result is already known.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Estoril Open: Henrique Rocha vs Pedro Martinez across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.