Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge. This market refers to the tennis match between Celia Cervino Ruiz and Francisca Jorge in the ITF W35 Vigo Women, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ce…
Methodology
This page reviews ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca Jorge across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade ITF W35 Vigo Women: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Francisca … on Prediction Market UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →