Livesport Prague Open: Ayla Aksu vs Sofia Costoulas

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the qualification match at the Livesport Prague Open between Sofia Costoulas and Ayla Aksu, which has already concluded with Costoulas winning. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that the market’s specific outcome will occur, while a NO share bets it will not. Here, the market asks who advances, and since Costoulas defeated Aksu, the outcome is fixed. The 100% YES probability reflects this certainty, as the result is no longer speculative but a settled fact from the tournament’s qualification round.

Historically, markets with 100% pricing after an event’s conclusion are common in sports prediction platforms, where late settlement often locks in odds once results are official. Comparable cases include WTA matches where qualification winners are confirmed before the main market closes, leading to immediate resolution at full certainty. In such instances, the probability does not fluctuate because the outcome is irrefutable, mirroring how financial markets price in known data rather than forecasts.

Traders should monitor official WTA match reports and tournament archives to confirm the winner, as these serve as the primary settlement sources. While the match is finished, dependencies include any potential disqualifications or rule changes that could alter the result, though these are rare in professional tennis. Recent coverage from Šport.sk confirms Costoulas as the winner, providing the factual anchor for this market’s resolution [2]. No further announcements are expected, as the event is complete and the outcome is documented.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.