Trump out as President by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market is about whether Donald Trump stops being president for any reason before the end of 31 May 2026. A Yes share pays out if he resigns, is removed, or otherwise ceases to hold the office within the market’s deadline; a No share pays if he remains president throughout. The current 0% Yes price means traders are assigning virtually no chance to an exit inside the next few days, which is consistent with the fact that any change would need to happen very quickly and be unmistakable.

Prediction markets often price these events near zero unless there is a clear constitutional, health, or political shock. Comparable cases in US history are rare: presidents usually leave office only at the end of a term, while resignations and removals are exceptional rather than routine political risks. For this market, the relevant benchmark is not whether Trump might eventually leave office, but whether there is any credible path to a permanent change before month-end.

Traders will watch for direct White House announcements, any formal resignation or removal process, and signs of severe incapacity that could trigger a transfer of power. Because the market settles on an announcement of resignation or removal even if the effective date is later, headlines would matter as much as the legal timing. Recent White House presidential action updates show Trump continuing to sign proclamations and executive orders, which supports the current low-risk pricing, but only an explicit change in status would move settlement towards Yes.

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Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President by May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.