Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event here is the **highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport on 1 August 2026**, as logged in Weather Underground’s historical data for KATL. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the final result lands in that contract’s specified temperature band; a **NO** share wins if it does not. The market is currently pricing a 0% chance on YES, which means traders are effectively saying the resolved band is extremely unlikely under the present distribution of possible highs.

Atlanta’s August heat profile gives some context for reading that price. Long-run climate data put the city’s average August high around **88–89°F**, with early-August daily highs typically in the high 80s, while record highs can reach above 100°F. That makes the upper-middle bands the natural focal point for a summer-weather market, because outcomes usually cluster near the climatological norm rather than the extremes.[2][4][11] For newer readers, the crowd price is not a forecast of certainty: it is the market’s best guess of where the final reported airport high will land, updated as traders react to fresh weather information.[1]

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates and any change in the timing or intensity of heat, cloud cover, or showers over metro Atlanta. AccuWeather’s August outlook points to highs broadly in the **mid-80s to low 90s**, which leaves several adjacent temperature bands plausible depending on how much warming occurs by the afternoon peak.[2] In practice, traders usually watch National Weather Service updates, local forecast discussions, and the final Weather Underground station record; for this contract, the settlement source is the KATL station’s daily summary once the next day’s observations begin to post.[3][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.