Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s outcome here is the **highest temperature** recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 3 August, with the market settling into the range that contains that peak reading. In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if the event lands in the stated band, while a **NO** share pays if it does not; with the current crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, the market is pricing in an outcome outside the listed range, or at least a very low chance of a high-end reading.

That scepticism sits against a fairly warm late-summer baseline. Short-range forecasts for Beijing around early August commonly point to daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, while climatology for August also supports hot conditions rather than cool ones.[1][3][6][8][15] For context, similar daily forecasts for 3 August have shown highs around 31°C to 37°C depending on the source and model, which matters because a one- or two-degree shift can move the day into a different settlement bucket.[3][5][6][13] Historical August averages are lower than peak forecasts, but they still leave room for several ranges to be plausible when sunshine dominates.[14][15]

A trader should watch for the official day-of forecast, updated airport observations, and any thunderstorm timing, because cloud cover and rain can cap the maximum even when the broader pattern is hot.[2][5] The key dependency is whether heating builds before showers arrive; if storms develop early, the high may be pulled down, but a delayed rainy spell can let the airport station briefly spike higher. Since the market uses a specific Wunderground station at Beijing Capital International Airport, localised airport conditions matter more than city-wide headlines or tourist forecasts.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.