Highest temperature in Beijing on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is whether the hottest reading logged at Beijing Capital International Airport on 8 August lands in the temperature band that resolves **YES** on this market. A **YES** share pays out if the day’s highest temperature at that station falls inside the specified range; a **NO** share pays if it ends up outside it, and this market uses Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high/low box. [11]

Beijing in August is usually very warm, with typical daytime highs around 31°C and some days reaching the mid-30s Celsius, so a 0% YES price implies the crowd thinks the contract’s target band is effectively unreachable or already inconsistent with the live weather set-up. Comparable August records on weather-history sites show highs often clustering near 30–34°C, with the upper end occasionally above 33°C, which is the sort of range traders use to gauge whether a forecast is unusually cool, normal, or hot for the season. [4][16][18]

For traders, the main catalysts are the actual hourly station observations and any late-day spike in temperature before the settlement cut-off, not forecast pages or generic city summaries. Current third-party weather pages for Beijing show warm conditions and only modest rain chances, which matters because cloud cover, showers, and wind can suppress the day’s peak; the key dependency is whether the airport station’s observed maximum rises enough to hit the contract band before the market’s resolution window closes. [1][17][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.