Highest temperature in Beijing on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction market. A YES share wins if the temperature falls within the selected range; a NO share wins if it does not. The market currently shows a 0% probability for YES, implying the crowd believes the chosen range is impossible given expected conditions.

Historically, Beijing experiences peak summer heat in mid-to-late July, with temperatures at ZBAA often reaching 35–39°C. For example, on 20 July 2023, the station recorded 38.2°C, while in 2024 the high was 36.7°C [1]. These comparable cases suggest that a 0% YES probability is unusual unless the selected range is far below typical highs, such as under 30°C, which rarely occurs on this date.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground as the day progresses, since the market resolves based on the official highest temperature for all times on 20 July [2]. No scheduled announcements or policy changes affect this outcome; the sole dependency is the observed temperature at ZBAA. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026, late-day heat spikes could shift probabilities if the current range is borderline.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.