Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A prediction market allows traders to buy YES or NO shares on whether the temperature lands in a specific bracket—for instance, whether it exceeds 35°C. Holding a YES share means you profit if that outcome occurs; a NO share profits if it doesn't. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders believe the specified range is highly unlikely, though the market remains open for new information and revised forecasts.

Beijing's July climate is characterised by intense summer heat, with historical highs regularly exceeding 35°C during mid-summer. Data from the past decade shows that 21 July temperatures at the airport station have ranged from approximately 32°C to 38°C, with the most frequent outcomes clustering around 34–36°C. This historical pattern provides the baseline against which the market's current 0% probability should be evaluated; if the specified range aligns with typical July conditions, the extreme confidence in rejection warrants scrutiny.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide reliable ten-day outlooks for Beijing. Broader atmospheric patterns—including the East Asian summer monsoon intensity and any anomalous high-pressure systems—will influence whether conditions favour above or below-average temperatures for that specific date. Real-time weather data from Wunderground will serve as the settlement source, making the platform's historical records a useful reference point for calibrating expectations.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.