Highest temperature in Beijing on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s hottest reading on 23 July will be taken from the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, and the market settles on the day’s *highest* recorded temperature in Celsius rather than the afternoon forecast alone. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the event lands in the contract’s specified temperature band, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not; here, traders are effectively pricing where the day’s maximum will fall, not whether it will be hot in a general sense.

For context, Beijing in July is typically warm and unsettled rather than extreme, with the month described as the city’s wettest and receiving around 160 mm of rain across roughly 14 rainy days.[2] Beijing’s climate is also classed as temperate monsoon, with distinct seasons and concentrated precipitation, which matters because cloud cover and rainfall can cap daytime highs even in midsummer.[3] The crowd-implied price of **0% YES** suggests traders see the current YES band as very unlikely, but that can change quickly if the morning clears or if forecasts shift towards stronger heating.

A trader watching this market should focus on the daily forecast for Beijing Capital International Airport, any late-morning changes in cloud cover, rainfall, and wind, and whether the final reading arrives before the settlement window closes. The resolution source is Wunderground’s history page for the airport station, so the key driver is the observed maximum on the station record rather than broader city forecasts.[1] There is no need for an official announcement or schedule change for settlement; the decisive factor is the temperature data itself, updated as the day unfolds.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.