Highest temperature in Busan on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport in Busan will fall within one of several defined ranges. This market asks traders to predict which bracket will contain that peak reading, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular station data rather than rounded summary figures. A YES share means you believe the temperature will land in the specified range; a NO share means it will fall outside that range. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the resolution date, after which the actual recorded high becomes fixed.

Busan's August climate is characterised by intense summer heat and high humidity, with historical August averages near 29°C and extremes occasionally exceeding 34°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are currently confident the market's specified temperature threshold sits well above what Gimhae typically records in mid-August, or the range itself is positioned at an outlier extreme. Comparable August readings from prior years at the same station provide the baseline for assessing whether the range in question represents a routine day or an exceptional heat event.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in late July and early August 2026, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which issues detailed outlooks for regional heat waves and temperature anomalies. Tropical systems moving through the Western Pacific in mid-August could either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or intensify heat through atmospheric dynamics. The specific resolution methodology—using Daily Observations rather than Day High & Low summaries—means the exact station recording protocol matters; traders should familiarise themselves with how Gimhae Airport logs temperatures to avoid discrepancies at settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.