Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

In prediction markets, traders buy YES or NO shares based on their belief about whether an event will occur. A YES share pays out if the event resolves true; a NO share pays out if it resolves false. This market asks whether the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 18 August 2026 will fall within a specific range (the exact range is not stated in the available information, but the resolution will use Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures). The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assess the specified temperature range as extremely unlikely for that date.

Chengdu's August climate provides useful historical context. The city experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with daily highs typically ranging between 28–34°C. Weather Underground data from previous years shows considerable year-to-year variation; August 2023 saw temperatures peak at 35°C, whilst cooler years remained in the 32–33°C band. This variability means the current 0% probability likely reflects either an unusually high or low temperature threshold set for this market, rather than genuine certainty about August conditions.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather patterns as August 2026 approaches. The East Asian summer monsoon influences Chengdu's precipitation and temperature distribution during this period. Any significant atmospheric anomalies—such as early autumn cooling or an extended heat dome—would shift expectations. The resolution depends entirely on Wundergro's access to Weather Underground's Daily Observations data, so confirmation of data availability and station continuity matters before settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.