Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event here is the **highest air temperature** recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 3 August, measured in Celsius and resolved against Wunderground’s daily history page. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the final temperature falls inside the specified range for the day; a **NO** share wins if it lands elsewhere. That means traders are not betting on whether Chengdu is “hot” in a general sense, but on the exact top reading that the airport station logs before the settlement window closes.

August is normally one of Chengdu’s hottest and stickiest periods, which is why most seasonal guides put daytime highs around 29–31°C, with some days reaching the mid-30s and occasional spikes higher. Forecast services for 3 August 2026 are already clustering around the low-to-mid 30s, with some showing 33°C and others 35–40°C, which is the kind of spread that matters for a range-based market because the payout can hinge on a single degree. Recent observations also show Chengdu running hot, with current temperatures in the mid-20s to mid-30s Celsius depending on the station and time of day.[2][3][5][10][12]

For traders, the main catalysts are the morning forecast updates, any afternoon convection or thunderstorm risk, and whether cloud cover or rain arrives early enough to suppress the day’s peak. In Chengdu’s summer climate, heat, humidity and scattered showers often coexist, so a forecast that looks modest at dawn can still be revised upward if skies stay clear through early afternoon. The most relevant dependency is simple: the airport’s official maximum has to be read from the Wunderground history entry for that station, so intraday changes in local conditions, rather than citywide averages, are what decide the market.[5][7][17][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.