Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak air temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 20 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the highest temperature falls within the specific range selected by the market creator, while a NO share wins if it falls outside that range. Currently, the crowd implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not hit the threshold in question.

Historically, Chengdu in July sees average highs of 31°C, with conditions often described as very warm and humid due to 75% relative humidity [1]. Rain is frequent, occurring on roughly half of all days, which typically moderates peak temperatures rather than allowing extreme heat spikes [1]. Given that the settlement relies on data from the airport station—a location subject to these regular monsoon-influenced patterns—the 0% probability aligns with the likelihood that temperatures will stay below the upper extremes seen in rare, dry heatwaves.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from local meteorological services and real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as cloud cover and precipitation are the primary catalysts for temperature suppression [1]. There are no scheduled announcements or policy changes expected to alter July weather patterns; the outcome depends entirely on atmospheric conditions on the settlement date. Since the market closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 July, the final reading will reflect the day’s absolute peak, which in Chengdu’s humid climate rarely exceeds 35°C without prolonged drought conditions.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.