Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event here is the **highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on 23 July 2026**, with the market settling against Wunderground’s daily history page for that station. A **YES** share pays out if the final recorded high falls within the market’s specified temperature range, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not; in other words, traders are wagering on which temperature band will contain the day’s peak reading.

The current **0% YES** price is best read as a signal that the crowd thinks the listed range is extremely unlikely, not as a forecast of zero chance in the weather itself. For context, Chengdu’s July climate is usually warm and humid, with typical highs around the low 30s Celsius, so a market priced at zero for one specific band can simply reflect how narrow the band is relative to the city’s broader summer pattern.[2][3] Earlier in the market, the strongest price in the related contract was 38°C at 44%, with 39°C next at 22%, showing traders were previously concentrated around the upper-30s range rather than the low-30s.[1]

For traders, the key catalysts are the same ones that drive the afternoon high: cloud cover, rain timing, and any shift in the local forecast that changes whether Chengdu gets full sun or short-lived convection. In practice, the most important watch points are the morning forecast updates and any later change in expected rainfall or storm cover, because those can cap the day’s maximum well before the official settlement window closes. Since the market resolves to a single station reading rather than the wider city, the airport observation matters more than downtown conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.