Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market will resolve on the **day’s highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station** on 24 July 2026, with settlement tied to the Wunderground daily history page for that station. A **YES** share pays out if the final recorded maximum falls inside the market’s specified temperature range; a **NO** share wins if it does not.

Chengdu’s July climate is usually hot, humid and rain-prone, which makes the daily maximum more variable than a simple seasonal average suggests. Travel China Guide puts July averages at about **30°C** for highs, with around **80%** humidity and roughly **18 rainy days** in the month, while recent forecast snapshots for Chengdu show temperatures in the mid-20s with unsettled conditions and rain chances around **40%**.[3][4] That kind of setup means the market should be read less as “will it be hot?” and more as “how hot does the airport station actually get during its warmest hour?”

For traders, the main things to watch are the local forecast trend, timing of afternoon showers, and whether cloud cover or rain arrives before the day’s peak heating window. Chengdu’s weather can swing quickly between muggy sunshine and convective rain, so the highest reading often depends on whether storms develop early enough to cap the maximum. A 0% crowd-implied probability indicates the market currently sees the target range as effectively excluded, but in weather markets that can reflect thin trading as much as firm conviction, especially when the outcome is still sensitive to the final daytime evolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.