Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share represents a bet that the temperature lands within a specific bracket; a NO share is the inverse. When you buy a YES share, you profit if the actual recorded high matches that range. The settlement source is historical weather data from Weather Underground, which archives daily temperature records for the airport station. This market resolves based on the single highest temperature reading across all times on that date.

Chengdu's summer climate is characterised by high humidity and sustained heat. July averages around 29–30°C in the city, though airport readings can vary slightly depending on local microclimates and measurement conditions. Historical July records at the airport show peaks in the 35–37°C range during typical heat waves, with occasional excursions above 38°C during particularly intense episodes. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band to select or are waiting for clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital.

The key variable is whether an early-summer heat dome or monsoon system dominates the region in late July 2026. China's meteorological services issue monthly climate outlooks in June that often signal whether above-normal or below-normal temperatures are expected. Traders should monitor these forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña signals from the preceding months, as these influence East Asian summer patterns. Real-time weather models become reliable only 10–14 days before the event, so meaningful probability shifts are likely to occur in early-to-mid July as the actual forecast window opens.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.