Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event here is whether the hottest reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 31 July 2026 lands inside the market’s chosen temperature band. A **YES** share pays out if the station’s highest recorded temperature falls in that range; a **NO** share pays if it lands outside it, using the Wunderground daily history page for the airport station as the settlement source.

A 0% crowd-implied probability is best read as the market saying the specified range is currently viewed as effectively impossible, rather than as a literal forecast of zero. That is useful in weather markets because the settlement depends on one station’s maximum, not the city-wide average, and airport readings can differ from nearby forecasts when afternoon convection, cloud cover, or local rain bands shift the peak. Seasonal context is still relevant: late July in Chengdu is typically hot and humid, with many forecasts and climate guides placing daytime highs around 30–35°C and occasional higher spikes.[3][10][13][14]

The main catalysts are the day’s evolving forecast, any thunderstorm or rain timing, and whether clouds break long enough for a sharp midday peak. Traders should watch hourly updates from forecasters and any short-term changes in precipitation probability, wind, and humidity, because those can move the realised maximum by several degrees even if the morning starts warm.[2][9][12] In prediction-markets terms, the key dependency is not what Chengdu feels like overall, but the single highest airport-station reading before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.