Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s airport temperature on 3 August 2026 will be measured against the highest reading recorded that day at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, so the market is about a single local observation rather than the citywide feel. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the final temperature falls in the specified range; a **NO** share pays out if it does not.

The current 0% YES pricing reflects how narrowly defined the settlement is, but the underlying climate still matters. August is Chongqing’s hottest month on average, with typical highs around 34°C and lows around 25°C, and several climate guides describe extreme summer heat in the city reaching well above 39°C in strong heatwave years.[2][4][6][9] That means the market is best read as a forecast of whether today’s airport maximum will land in the relevant band, not whether Chongqing will feel hot in general.[2][9]

For traders, the key catalyst is the day’s weather progression at the airport: cloud cover, rain, and the timing of any afternoon peak will matter more than the morning temperature. Chongqing’s summer is also notably rainy and humid, which can either suppress the high if showers arrive early or allow a sharp late-day climb if sunshine persists.[2][19] Because resolution uses Wunderground’s station history for the airport, the final print can depend on that exact station reading rather than forecasts for central Chongqing or broader regional weather models.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.