Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the **highest temperature measured at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 27 July 2026**, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band contains that day’s peak reading from Wunderground. For a newcomer, a **YES** share pays out if the final observed high lands in the selected band, while a **NO** share does not; in practice, traders are trying to match the day’s maximum temperature to one of the listed ranges before settlement.

Chongqing in July is usually **very hot and humid**, with typical daytime highs around **33°C** and frequent rain or thunderstorms, which can cap heating on some days even during the hottest part of summer.[1] The broader seasonal pattern is also important: the main rainy season runs from **May to September**, and rainfall is concentrated heavily in that period.[2] That makes a zero-priced market easy to misread; it does not mean “impossible”, only that the crowd sees the nominated band as extremely unlikely relative to the others, often because the exact airport observation and the settlement cutoff leave little room for the outcome they are pricing.

The main catalysts are the **day’s weather evolution** and the airport station’s official reading up to the settlement window, not headlines or policy announcements. Traders will watch for forecast updates on cloud cover, rainfall, and thunderstorm timing, because these can quickly change the expected high in inland south-west China during late July.[1][4] Since the market settles on the **airport station’s recorded maximum**, not a citywide average, even a brief clear spell or storm-driven cooling can move the outcome band materially.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.