Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 22 July 2026, the key real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field, measured in degrees Fahrenheit during that day’s full reporting window. In prediction markets, a **YES** share pays out if the specified outcome happens; a **NO** share pays out if it does not, so prices are often read as the crowd’s implied view of the likelihood of that exact temperature range. Here, the market is tied to Wunderground’s daily history page for Dallas Love Field, which is the settlement source named in the rules.[1]

For context, Dallas in late July is typically a high-heat period, so traders usually compare the day against the distribution of summer maxima rather than a single forecast point. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market is not pricing the referenced range as the most likely result, although that can change sharply if the day’s maximum temperature shifts into a different bracket. The live Polymarket page shows the 108–109°F band as the current frontrunner and 95°F or below at 0%, which is useful for reading where traders expect the outcome to land.[1]

The main catalysts to watch are the daily forecast updates, any heat advisories or changes in the local weather pattern, and the timing of the station’s recorded maximum relative to the market’s settlement window. Because the contract resolves from the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field rather than a broader city average, traders focus on the station-specific forecast and any late-afternoon heat spikes that could lift the daily high. The market is already past the event date, so the only remaining issue is the official recorded reading used by the resolution source.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.