Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges. In prediction markets, traders purchase YES or NO shares on specific outcomes. A YES share pays out if the temperature lands in that range; a NO share pays if it lands elsewhere. This market resolves using the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, ensuring precision in measurement methodology.

Guangzhou's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical highs typically between 32–35°C. The current 0% probability assigned to this particular temperature range suggests traders believe the outcome falls outside it entirely—either substantially hotter or, less likely, cooler than that band. August represents peak summer in Guangzhou, with monsoon influences and urban heat effects regularly pushing temperatures toward the upper end of the seasonal range. Comparable August readings from recent years show little variation, clustering around 33–34°C as daily maxima, though extreme heat events have occasionally driven readings above 36°C.

Traders monitoring this market should track tropical storm activity and upper-atmosphere pressure systems in the weeks preceding mid-August 2026, as these drive daily temperature variance. China's meteorological service issues seasonal forecasts and monthly outlooks that can signal whether conditions will favour above or below-average heat. The specific resolution source—Weather Underground's Baiyun station data—is publicly accessible, allowing traders to cross-reference historical patterns and verify measurement consistency as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.