Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will fall within a specific range measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, traders buy YES or NO shares on whether an outcome will occur; a YES share pays out if the event happens, whilst a NO share pays out if it does not. This market divides the temperature spectrum into discrete ranges, and you would purchase a YES share on whichever range you believe will contain that day's peak temperature. The resolution hinges on data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at the airport station, prioritising that source over summary figures if any discrepancy arises.

Guangzhou's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year on year, with historical highs typically clustering between 33–35°C during the peak summer season. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are currently sceptical of extreme heat on this particular date, though August in Guangzhou rarely produces temperatures below 32°C. The city's subtropical climate, shaped by the Pearl River Delta's geography and monsoon patterns, creates predictable thermal conditions during late summer.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released in July 2026, which will provide the first reliable indication of August conditions. El Niño or La Niña patterns, if active, could influence regional temperature anomalies. Typhoon activity in the South China Sea during August occasionally moderates peak temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, making tropical cyclone tracking a relevant catalyst for reassessing probability shifts closer to settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.