Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of this weather prediction market. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share wins if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any specific temperature range being selected, suggesting uncertainty or a lack of consensus on the likely peak heat.

Historically, Guangzhou in mid-July routinely experiences highs between 32°C and 35°C, with the Baiyun station often recording peaks near 34°C during clear, humid conditions [1]. Comparable years show that temperatures below 27°C are exceptionally rare in this period, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability for lower ranges consistent with climatic norms rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from China’s Meteorological Administration and real-time updates on Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any shifts in cloud cover or rainfall that could suppress temperatures [2]. While no specific announcements are pending, the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 July, meaning the final reading must be captured before that time, and any late-afternoon heat spikes will not count.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.