Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share on any given range means you believe the peak temperature that day will land in that bracket; a NO share means it won't. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, after which Wunderground's historical weather data for the station becomes the official reference. Traders are essentially wagering on which temperature band will contain the day's maximum reading in Celsius.

Guangzhou's July climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical highs typically between 32–35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either that no temperature range has been offered yet, or that the market is awaiting range definitions before traders commit capital. Comparable July days at Baiyun Airport over the past decade show peaks rarely exceeding 36°C, though occasional heat waves have pushed readings to 37–38°C. This historical pattern anchors expectations: extreme outliers above 39°C are rare but not impossible during peak summer monsoon season.

The primary catalyst affecting July 2026 temperatures will be the strength and timing of the East Asian summer monsoon, which typically peaks in July and moderates afternoon heat through cloud cover and precipitation. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea, though less common in early-to-mid July, could introduce anomalous cooling or heating depending on track and intensity. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and regional typhoon advisories as the settlement date approaches, as these will sharpen expectations around whether conditions favour typical seasonal highs or more extreme readings.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.